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Prediction tests by using ISF method for the geomagnetic disturbances
Wei, F. S.; Xu, Y.; Feng, X. S.; Fan, Q. L.; 北京8701信箱
Department空间天气学国家重点实验室
Source PublicationScience in China Series E-Technological Sciences
2002
Volume45Issue:5Pages:525-530
ISSN1006-9321
Language英语
KeywordSpace Weather Geomagnetic Disturbance Prediction Ips Observation Interplanetary
AbstractA so-called ISF method for predicting geomagnetic disturbances caused by solar wind storm blowing to the earth is suggested. The method is based on a combined approach to solar activity, interplanetary scintillation (IPS) and geomagnetic disturbance observations in 1966-1982, dynamics of disturbance propagation and fuzzy mathematics. Prediction test has been made for 24 large geomagnetic disturbance events that produced space disasters during the period of 1980 -1998, with the three-dimensional propagation characteristics, the best close degree of each radio source and the influence of the south-north components of interplanetary magnetic fields considered. The main results are (i) for onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, events with relative error DeltaT(pre)d/T(obs)less than or equal to10% between the observation T-obs and the prediction T-pred, account for 45.8% of all events, less than or equal to30% for 78.3% and >30% for only 21.7%; (ii) as for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, events with relative error DeltaSigmaK(p,pred)/SigmaK(p,obs)less than or equal to10% between the observation SigmaK(p,obs) and the prediction SigmaK(p,pred), account for 41.6% of all events, less than or equal to30% for 79% and less than or equal to45% for 100%. For example, the prediction test of April-May event in 1998 indicates that DeltaT(pred)/T-obs=7.4%, DeltaSigmaK(p,pred)/SigmaK(p,obs)=15.3%. Our result shows that the prediction method suggested in this paper has encouraging prospects in improving geomagnetic disturbance prediction in space weather events.
Indexed BySCI
Funding Project中国科学院空间科学与应用研究中心
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.nssc.ac.cn/handle/122/1006
Collection空间科学部
Corresponding Author北京8701信箱
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Wei, F. S.,Xu, Y.,Feng, X. S.,et al. Prediction tests by using ISF method for the geomagnetic disturbances[J]. Science in China Series E-Technological Sciences,2002,45(5):525-530.
APA Wei, F. S.,Xu, Y.,Feng, X. S.,Fan, Q. L.,&北京8701信箱.(2002).Prediction tests by using ISF method for the geomagnetic disturbances.Science in China Series E-Technological Sciences,45(5),525-530.
MLA Wei, F. S.,et al."Prediction tests by using ISF method for the geomagnetic disturbances".Science in China Series E-Technological Sciences 45.5(2002):525-530.
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