NSSC OpenIR  > 空间科学部
Prediction tests by using "ISF" method for the geomagnetic disturbances
Wei, F. S.; Feng, X. S.; Xu, Y.; Fan, Q. L.; 北京8701信箱
Department空间天气学国家重点实验室
Source PublicationSpace Weather
2005
Volume36Issue:12Pages:2363-2367
ISSN0273-1177
Language英语
KeywordSpace Weather Large Geomagnetic Disturbances Prediction Tests "isf" Method Ips Observations Solar-cycle Interplanetary Propagation Evolution
AbstractA so-called "ISF" prediction method for geomagnetic disturbances caused by solar wind storms blowing to the Earth is suggested. The method is based on a combined approach of solar activity, interplanetary scintillation (I) and geomagnetic disturbance observations during the period 1966-1982 together with the dynamics of solar wind storm propagation (S) and fuzzy mathematics (F). It has been used for prediction tests for 37 geomagnetic disturbance events during the descending solar activity phase 19841985, and was presented in 33rd COSPAR conference. Here, it has been improved by consideration of the three dimensional propagation characteristics of each event, the search for the best radio source and the influence of the southward components of interplanetary magnetic fields on the geomagnetic disturbances. It is used for prediction tests for 24 larger geomagnetic disturbance events that produced space anomalies during the period 1980-1999. The main results are: (1) for the onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative error between the observation, T-obs, and the prediction, T-pred, Delta T-pred/T-obs <= 10% for 45.8% of all events, <= 30% for 78.3% and > 30% for only 21.7%; (2) for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the relative error between the observation, Sigma K-p,K-obs, and the prediction, Sigma K-p,K-pred, Delta Sigma K-p,(pred)/Sigma K-p,K-obs <= 10% for 41.6% of all events, <= 30% for 79% and <= 45% for 100%. This shows that the prediction method described here has encouraging prospects for improving predictions of large geomagnetic disturbances in space weather events.
Indexed BySCI
Funding Project中国科学院空间科学与应用研究中心
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.nssc.ac.cn/handle/122/1036
Collection空间科学部
Corresponding Author北京8701信箱
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Wei, F. S.,Feng, X. S.,Xu, Y.,et al. Prediction tests by using "ISF" method for the geomagnetic disturbances[J]. Space Weather,2005,36(12):2363-2367.
APA Wei, F. S.,Feng, X. S.,Xu, Y.,Fan, Q. L.,&北京8701信箱.(2005).Prediction tests by using "ISF" method for the geomagnetic disturbances.Space Weather,36(12),2363-2367.
MLA Wei, F. S.,et al."Prediction tests by using "ISF" method for the geomagnetic disturbances".Space Weather 36.12(2005):2363-2367.
Files in This Item: Download All
File Name/Size DocType Version Access License
200536122363.pdf(123KB) 开放获取CC BY-NC-SAView Download
Related Services
Recommend this item
Bookmark
Usage statistics
Export to Endnote
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Wei, F. S.]'s Articles
[Feng, X. S.]'s Articles
[Xu, Y.]'s Articles
Baidu academic
Similar articles in Baidu academic
[Wei, F. S.]'s Articles
[Feng, X. S.]'s Articles
[Xu, Y.]'s Articles
Bing Scholar
Similar articles in Bing Scholar
[Wei, F. S.]'s Articles
[Feng, X. S.]'s Articles
[Xu, Y.]'s Articles
Terms of Use
No data!
Social Bookmark/Share
File name: 200536122363.pdf
Format: Adobe PDF
This file does not support browsing at this time
All comments (0)
No comment.
 

Items in the repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.