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Prediction method for October 2003 solar storm
Xie, Y. Q.; Wei, F. S.; Feng, X. S.; Zhong, D. K.; 北京8701信箱
Source PublicationScience in China Series E-Technological Sciences
KeywordSolar Storm Interplanetary Shock Interplanetary Scintillation Two-step Method Isf Method Geomagnetic Disturbances Interplanetary Shock Ips Observations Art. Propagation Cme
AbstractAiming at two intense shock events on October 28 and 29, 2003, this paper presents a two-step method, which combines synoptic analysis of space weather "observing" and quantitative prediction - "palpating", and then uses it to test predictions. In the first step of "observing", on the basis of observations of the solar source surface magnetic field, interplanetary scintillation (IPS) and ACE spacecraft, we find that the propagation of the shocks is asymmetric relative to the normal direction of their solar sources, and the Earth is located near the direction of the fastest speed and the greatest energy of the shocks. As the two fast ejection shock events, the fast explosion of coronal mass of the extremely high temperature, the strong magnetic field, and the high speed background solar wind are also helpful to their rapid propagation. In the second step of "palpating", we adopt a new membership function of the fast shock events for the ISF method. The predicted results show that for the onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 1.8% and 6.7%; and for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the relative errors are 4.1% and 3.1%, respectively. Furthermore, the comparison among the predicted results of our two-step method with those of five other prevailing methods shows that the two-step method is advantageous. The results tell us that understanding the physical features of shock propagation thoroughly is of great importance in improving the prediction precision.
Indexed BySCI
Funding Project中国科学院空间科学与应用研究中心
Document Type期刊论文
Corresponding Author北京8701信箱
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Xie, Y. Q.,Wei, F. S.,Feng, X. S.,et al. Prediction method for October 2003 solar storm[J]. Science in China Series E-Technological Sciences,2006,49(5):629-640.
APA Xie, Y. Q.,Wei, F. S.,Feng, X. S.,Zhong, D. K.,&北京8701信箱.(2006).Prediction method for October 2003 solar storm.Science in China Series E-Technological Sciences,49(5),629-640.
MLA Xie, Y. Q.,et al."Prediction method for October 2003 solar storm".Science in China Series E-Technological Sciences 49.5(2006):629-640.
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