|On improvement to the Shock Propagation Model (SPM) applied to interplanetary shock transit time forecasting|
|Li HJ(李汇军); Wei FS(魏奉思); Feng XS(冯学尚); Xie YQ(谢艳琼); 北京8701信箱
|Source Publication||Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics
|Keyword||Coronal Mass Ejections
|Abstract||This paper investigates methods to improve the predictions of Shock Arrival Time (SAT) of the original Shock Propagation Model (SPM). According to the classical blast wave theory adopted in the SPM, the shock propagating speed is determined by the total energy of the original explosion together with the background solar wind speed. Noting that there exists an intrinsic limit to the transit times computed by the SPM predictions for a specified ambient solar wind, we present a statistical analysis on the forecasting capability of the SPM using this intrinsic property. Two facts about SPM are found: (1) the error in shock energy estimation is not the only cause of the prediction errors and we should not expect that the accuracy of SPM to be improved drastically by an exact shock energy input; and (2) there are systematic differences in prediction results both for the strong shocks propagating into a slow ambient solar wind and for the weak shocks into a fast medium. Statistical analyses indicate the physical details of shock propagation and thus clearly point out directions of the future improvement of the SPM. A simple modification is presented here, which shows that there is room for improvement of SPM and thus that the original SPM is worthy of further development.|
Li HJ,Wei FS,Feng XS,et al. On improvement to the Shock Propagation Model (SPM) applied to interplanetary shock transit time forecasting[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics,2008,113(A9):A09101.
李汇军,魏奉思,冯学尚,谢艳琼,&北京8701信箱.(2008).On improvement to the Shock Propagation Model (SPM) applied to interplanetary shock transit time forecasting.Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics,113(A9),A09101.
李汇军,et al."On improvement to the Shock Propagation Model (SPM) applied to interplanetary shock transit time forecasting".Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics 113.A9(2008):A09101.
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