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On improvement to the Shock Propagation Model (SPM) applied to interplanetary shock transit time forecasting
Li HJ(李汇军); Wei FS(魏奉思); Feng XS(冯学尚); Xie YQ(谢艳琼); 北京8701信箱
Department空间天气学国家重点实验室
Source PublicationJournal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics
2008
Volume113Issue:A9Pages:A09101
ISSN0148-0227
Language英语
KeywordCoronal Mass Ejections Geomagnetic Disturbances Prediction Method Arrival-time Isf Method Solar Heliosphere Evolution Storms Waves
AbstractThis paper investigates methods to improve the predictions of Shock Arrival Time (SAT) of the original Shock Propagation Model (SPM). According to the classical blast wave theory adopted in the SPM, the shock propagating speed is determined by the total energy of the original explosion together with the background solar wind speed. Noting that there exists an intrinsic limit to the transit times computed by the SPM predictions for a specified ambient solar wind, we present a statistical analysis on the forecasting capability of the SPM using this intrinsic property. Two facts about SPM are found: (1) the error in shock energy estimation is not the only cause of the prediction errors and we should not expect that the accuracy of SPM to be improved drastically by an exact shock energy input; and (2) there are systematic differences in prediction results both for the strong shocks propagating into a slow ambient solar wind and for the weak shocks into a fast medium. Statistical analyses indicate the physical details of shock propagation and thus clearly point out directions of the future improvement of the SPM. A simple modification is presented here, which shows that there is room for improvement of SPM and thus that the original SPM is worthy of further development.
Indexed BySCI
Funding Project中国科学院空间科学与应用研究中心
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.nssc.ac.cn/handle/122/1121
Collection空间科学部
Corresponding Author北京8701信箱
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Li HJ,Wei FS,Feng XS,et al. On improvement to the Shock Propagation Model (SPM) applied to interplanetary shock transit time forecasting[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics,2008,113(A9):A09101.
APA 李汇军,魏奉思,冯学尚,谢艳琼,&北京8701信箱.(2008).On improvement to the Shock Propagation Model (SPM) applied to interplanetary shock transit time forecasting.Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics,113(A9),A09101.
MLA 李汇军,et al."On improvement to the Shock Propagation Model (SPM) applied to interplanetary shock transit time forecasting".Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics 113.A9(2008):A09101.
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