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Prediction of the shock arrival time with SEP observations
Qin, G.; Zhang, M.; Rassoul, H. K.; 北京8701信箱
Source PublicationJournal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics
KeywordSolar Energetic Particles Coronal Mass Ejections Interplanetary Transport Models Space Earth
AbstractReal-time prediction of the arrival times at Earth of shocks is very important for space weather research. Recently, various models for shock propagation are used to forecast the shock arriving times (SATs) with information of initial coronal shock and flare from near real-time radio and X-ray data. In this paper, we add the use of solar energetic particles (SEP) observation to improve the shock arrival time (SAT) prediction. High-energy SEPs originating from flares move to the Earth much faster than the shocks related to the same flares. We develop an SAT prediction model by combining a well-known shock propagation model, STOA, and the analysis of SEPs detected at Earth. We demonstrate that the SAT predictions are improved by the new model with the help of 38-53 keV electron SEP observations. In particular, the correct prediction to false alarm ratio is improved significantly.
Indexed BySCI
Funding Project中国科学院空间科学与应用研究中心
Document Type期刊论文
Corresponding Author北京8701信箱
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Qin, G.,Zhang, M.,Rassoul, H. K.,et al. Prediction of the shock arrival time with SEP observations[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics,2009,114:A09104.
APA Qin, G.,Zhang, M.,Rassoul, H. K.,&北京8701信箱.(2009).Prediction of the shock arrival time with SEP observations.Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics,114,A09104.
MLA Qin, G.,et al."Prediction of the shock arrival time with SEP observations".Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics 114(2009):A09104.
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