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从属函数在地磁扰动预报研究中的初步应用
Alternative TitlePRIMARY APPLICATION OF THE MEMBERSHIP FUNCTIONS IN THE GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE PREDICTIONS
魏奉思; 蔡红昌; 北京8701信箱
Department空间天气学国家重点实验室
Source Publication空间科学学报
1990
Volume10Issue:1Pages:35-41
ISSN0254-6124
Language中文
Keyword从属函数 地磁扰动 预报
Abstract根据1966—1982年期间有关太阳耀斑、行星际激波和地磁扰动的观测资料而建立的从属函数,对1984—1985年间的行星际闪烁观测中能证认出的耀斑-激波所引起的地磁扰动作了预报试验.结果表明:(1)磁扰开始时间预报的相对误差,δT/T≤10%的事件数为20个,占总事件数的50%,δT/T≤20%的事件占总事件数的70%以上;(2)磁扰幅度(ΣKp)大小的预报,其相对误差δΣKp/ΣKp≤30%的事件数为32个,占总事件数的80%,而δΣKp/ΣKp≥60%仅占15%.本文方法显示了一定潜力,有待从聚类分析方面进一步深入.
Other AbstractPrediction test for 40 geomagnetic disturbance events caused by the flare-associated interplanetary shock waves, which can be identified by interplanetary scintillation (IPS) observations during 1984-1985, are made based on the membership functions established by using observational data on the solar flares, the interplanetary shock waves and the geomagnetic disturbances during the period of 1966-1982. Main results are: (1) Prediction of the magnetic disturbance onset time-for 50% of all events, the relative error,,δT/T≤lD%:and for 70%,δT/T≤20% (2)Predlctioa of the geomagnetic disturhance pIrtudes— — for 80% of all events,the relative error,δΣKp/ΣKp≤30% ;and only for 15%,δΣKp/ΣKp≥60%.These resuhs show that the method adoption in this paper has some potentiaI prospects for investigating the flare-associated interplanetary shock waves and the geomagnetic disturbance predicions.
Funding Project中国科学院空间科学与应用研究中心
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.nssc.ac.cn/handle/122/1184
Collection空间科学部
Corresponding Author北京8701信箱
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
魏奉思,蔡红昌,北京8701信箱. 从属函数在地磁扰动预报研究中的初步应用[J]. 空间科学学报,1990,10(1):35-41.
APA 魏奉思,蔡红昌,&北京8701信箱.(1990).从属函数在地磁扰动预报研究中的初步应用.空间科学学报,10(1),35-41.
MLA 魏奉思,et al."从属函数在地磁扰动预报研究中的初步应用".空间科学学报 10.1(1990):35-41.
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