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Alternative TitlePrediction Method of CME Associated Geomagnetic Disturbances Based on Fuzzy Mathematics
王晶; 冯学尚; 北京8701信箱
Source Publication空间科学学报
Keyword地磁扰动 从属函数 cme
Other AbstractBased on the 73 geomagnetic disturbance events caused by coronal mass ejection(CME)associated with interplanetary shock waves and using fuzzy mathematics,here is presented a predic-tion method for geomagnetic disturbances.According to the solar location of CME, the transit time of the interplanetary disturbance,the geomagnetic disturbance magnitude and the velocity jump observed by IPS at the disturbed front,five membership functions, hov are con-stituted.Based on the five membership functions and fuzzy mathematics,prediction tests for the 73 CME associated geomagnetic disturbance events during 1996-2004 are made by considering the influence of CME velocity on the onset time of geomagnetic disturbances. Main results are:(1) For the prediction of the magnetic disturbance onset time,91.78% is within the range of relative error△几re/robs < 30% and 12.33% within△几re/robs)30%; (2) For the prediction of the geomagnetic disturbance amplitudes,60.27% is within the range of relative error△∑Kp/∑Kpobs < 30% and 12.33% within△∑Kp/∑Kpobs)50%.These results show that the prediction method has good feasibility for geomagnetic disturbance prediction.
Indexed ByCSCD
Funding Project中国科学院空间科学与应用研究中心
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Document Type期刊论文
Corresponding Author北京8701信箱
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
王晶,冯学尚,北京8701信箱. CME地磁扰动事件的模糊预报方法[J]. 空间科学学报,2007,27(6):459-466.
APA 王晶,冯学尚,&北京8701信箱.(2007).CME地磁扰动事件的模糊预报方法.空间科学学报,27(6),459-466.
MLA 王晶,et al."CME地磁扰动事件的模糊预报方法".空间科学学报 27.6(2007):459-466.
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