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Alternative TitlePredicting the 1 AU Arrival Times of Interplanetary Shocks
高原; 冯学尚; 北京8701信箱
Source Publication空间科学学报
Keyword行星际激波 扰动传播模型 渡越时间预测
Other AbstractIn order to predict the arrival time at 1 AU of interplanetary shocks, a simple model called shock propagation model is established here. In this model, the travel time is assumed to be a function of energy that is released from solar explosives, and pulse longitudinal width, pulse duration,the interaction of interplanetary shock and background solar wind are also taken into account. In order to verify the prediction efficiency, 27 interplanetary shock events from January 1979 to October 1989 and 68 interplanetary shock events from February 1997 to January 2000 are used for testing.Comparing the results of our shock propagation model with those obtained by STOA and ISPM models, we find that our disturbance propagation model is as good as the other two models, and in some cases even better.The shock propagation model can give the prediction for all the 95 shock events, while STOA model works for 89 events and ISPM model for only 72 events. There are percentage of all the 95 events with the relative time error less than 10%, 50.53% of all the 25.26% events with the relative time error less than 20%, 65.26% of all the events with the relative time error less than 30%.
Indexed ByCSCD
Funding Project中国科学院空间科学与应用研究中心
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Document Type期刊论文
Corresponding Author北京8701信箱
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
高原,冯学尚,北京8701信箱. 行星际激波传播至1AU的渡越时间预测[J]. 空间科学学报,2005,25(6):495-503.
APA 高原,冯学尚,&北京8701信箱.(2005).行星际激波传播至1AU的渡越时间预测.空间科学学报,25(6),495-503.
MLA 高原,et al."行星际激波传播至1AU的渡越时间预测".空间科学学报 25.6(2005):495-503.
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