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CONNECTING SPEEDS, DIRECTIONS AND ARRIVAL TIMES OF 22 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS FROM THE SUN TO 1 AU
Moestl, C.; Amla, K.; Hall, J. R.; Liewer, P. C.; De Jong, E. M.; Colaninno, R. C.; Veronig, A. M.; Rollett, T.; Temmer, M.; Peinhart, V.; Davies, J. A.; Lugaz, N.; Liu, Y. D.; Farrugia, C. J.; Luhmann, J. G.; Vrsnak, B.; Harrison, R. A.; Galvin, A. B.; Mostl, C (reprint author), Graz Univ, Inst Phys, Kanzelhohe Observ IGAM, A-8010 Graz, Austria.
Department空间科学部
Source PublicationASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL
2014
Volume787Issue:2Pages:119
ISSN0004-637X
Language英语
KeywordSolar Terrestrial Relations Sun: Coronal Mass Ejections (Cmes) Sun: Heliosphere
AbstractForecasting the in situ properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from remote images is expected to strongly enhance predictions of space weather and is of general interest for studying the interaction of CMEs with planetary environments. We study the feasibility of using a single heliospheric imager (HI) instrument, imaging the solar wind density from the Sun to 1 AU, for connecting remote images to in situ observations of CMEs. We compare the predictions of speed and arrival time for 22 CMEs (in 2008-2012) to the corresponding interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) parameters at in situ observatories (STEREO PLASTIC/IMPACT, Wind SWE/MFI). The list consists of front-and backsided, slow and fast CMEs (up to 2700 km s(-1)). We track the CMEs to 34.9 +/- 7.1 deg elongation from the Sun with J maps constructed using the SATPLOT tool, resulting in prediction lead times of - 26.4 +/- 15.3 hr. The geometrical models we use assume different CME front shapes (fixed-Phi, harmonic mean, self-similar expansion) and constant CME speed and direction. We find no significant superiority in the predictive capability of any of the three methods. The absolute difference between predicted and observed ICME arrival times is 8.1 +/- 6.3 hr (rms value of 10.9 hr). Speeds are consistent to within 284 +/- 288 km s(-1) . Empirical corrections to the predictions enhance their performance for the arrival times to 6.1 +/- 5.0 hr (rms value of 7.9 hr), and for the speeds to 53 +/- 50 km s(-1). These results are important for Solar Orbiter and a space weather mission positioned away from the Sun-Earth line.
Indexed BySCI
Funding Project中国科学院空间科学与应用研究中心
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.nssc.ac.cn/handle/122/2751
Collection空间科学部
Corresponding AuthorMostl, C (reprint author), Graz Univ, Inst Phys, Kanzelhohe Observ IGAM, A-8010 Graz, Austria.
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Moestl, C.,Amla, K.,Hall, J. R.,et al. CONNECTING SPEEDS, DIRECTIONS AND ARRIVAL TIMES OF 22 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS FROM THE SUN TO 1 AU[J]. ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL,2014,787(2):119.
APA Moestl, C..,Amla, K..,Hall, J. R..,Liewer, P. C..,De Jong, E. M..,...&Mostl, C .(2014).CONNECTING SPEEDS, DIRECTIONS AND ARRIVAL TIMES OF 22 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS FROM THE SUN TO 1 AU.ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL,787(2),119.
MLA Moestl, C.,et al."CONNECTING SPEEDS, DIRECTIONS AND ARRIVAL TIMES OF 22 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS FROM THE SUN TO 1 AU".ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL 787.2(2014):119.
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