NSSC OpenIR  > 空间环境部
基于支持向量机方法的地球同步轨道相对论电子事件预报模型研究
Alternative TitleStudy on the Forecasting Method of Relativistic Electron Flux at Geostationary Orbit Based on Support Vector Machine
王任重; 师立勤; frankwrz@gmail.com
Department空间环境部
Source Publication空间科学学报
2012
Volume32Issue:3Pages:354-361
ISSN0254-6124
Language中文
Keyword相对论电子事件 地球同步轨道 支持向量机(Svm)
Abstract提出了一种基于支持向量机方法(SVM)的地球同步轨道相对论电子事件预报模型.模型以平均影响值(MIV)作为指标,筛选出预报输入参量.这些参量包括,前一日的大于2MeV电子日积分通量、太阳风速度、太阳风密度、Dst指数和前二日的AE指数.模型包含回归和分类两个部分,可以分别对未来一天的电子日积分通量和相对论电子事件强度的级别做出预报.对2008年样本进行测试,在相对论电子通量的预报中,预报值和实测值之间的线性相关系数为0.85,预报效率为0.71;对相对论电子事件级别预报的准确率为82%,可以较准确区分开事件状态与非事件状态.结果表明,SVM预报模型对相对论电子事件有较好的预报效果.
Other AbstractIn this paper the Support Vector Machine(Classification/Regression) is applied to predict the relativistic electron flux at geostationary orbit.The parameters of model are chosen by Mean Impact Values(MIV),including the electron flux,solar wind speed,solar wind density,Dst index on the previous day and AE index during the preceding two days.This model forecasts the level of relativistic electron flux event and the magnitude of electron flux on the coming day.Based on the comparison with original data in 2008,this model can normally categorize active and quite intervals.For predicting the magnitude of relativistic electron flux,the linear correlation coefficient and prediction efficiency is 0.85 and 0.71;and the model can correctly predict the level of energetic electron enhancement event at most of the time(82%).Our result demonstrates this forecasting technique based on SVM is viable and maybe applicable to other subjects.
Indexed ByCSCD
Funding Project中国科学院空间科学与应用研究中心
Citation statistics
Cited Times:4[CSCD]   [CSCD Record]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.nssc.ac.cn/handle/122/2879
Collection空间环境部
Corresponding Authorfrankwrz@gmail.com
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
王任重,师立勤,frankwrz@gmail.com. 基于支持向量机方法的地球同步轨道相对论电子事件预报模型研究[J]. 空间科学学报,2012,32(3):354-361.
APA 王任重,师立勤,&frankwrz@gmail.com.(2012).基于支持向量机方法的地球同步轨道相对论电子事件预报模型研究.空间科学学报,32(3),354-361.
MLA 王任重,et al."基于支持向量机方法的地球同步轨道相对论电子事件预报模型研究".空间科学学报 32.3(2012):354-361.
Files in This Item: Download All
File Name/Size DocType Version Access License
2012323354.pdf(575KB) 开放获取CC BY-NC-SAView Download
Related Services
Recommend this item
Bookmark
Usage statistics
Export to Endnote
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[王任重]'s Articles
[师立勤]'s Articles
[frankwrz@gmail.com]'s Articles
Baidu academic
Similar articles in Baidu academic
[王任重]'s Articles
[师立勤]'s Articles
[frankwrz@gmail.com]'s Articles
Bing Scholar
Similar articles in Bing Scholar
[王任重]'s Articles
[师立勤]'s Articles
[frankwrz@gmail.com]'s Articles
Terms of Use
No data!
Social Bookmark/Share
File name: 2012323354.pdf
Format: Adobe PDF
All comments (0)
No comment.
 

Items in the repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.