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Influence of the initial shock speed excited by solar flares on shock arrival time prediction
Luo Hao; Chen Geng-Xiong; Du Ai-Min; Sun Wei; Xu Wen-Yao; Zhang Ying; Zhao Xu-Dong; Wang Yuan; Luo, H (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geol & Geophys, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China.
Department空间科学部
Source PublicationCHINESE JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICS-CHINESE EDITION
2011
Volume54Issue:6Pages:856-863
ISSN0001-5733
Language英语
KeywordHaf Model Initial Shock Speed Shock Arrival Time Type Ii Radio Burst
AbstractBy using Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry (HAF) solar wind model, we simulated 48 solar flare events during Carrington Rotation 1981 to 1985 and compared the simulated shock arrival time with observations by satellites at 1 AU. It is found that the initial solar wind shock speed deduced from the metric Type II radio burst observations plays an important role in the shock arrival time prediction. The match between predicted and observed shock arrival times (SATs) was considerably improved by iteratively adjusting the initial shock speed. We obtained the adjustment factors as a function of the initial shock speed for different hemispheres by statistical analysis and applied them to adjust the initial shock speed driven by the solar flares which occurred in the following five Carrington rotations (1986 similar to 1990), the mean absolute error of the shock arrival time was reduced from 16 (15) hours to 12 (11) hours for the flare occurred on the western (eastern) hemisphere. This indicates that there can be significant improvements for the shock arrival time prediction by adjusting the initial shock speed using the statistical functions.; By using Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry (HAF) solar wind model, we simulated 48 solar flare events during Carrington Rotation 1981 to 1985 and compared the simulated shock arrival time with observations by satellites at 1 AU. It is found that the initial solar wind shock speed deduced from the metric Type II radio burst observations plays an important role in the shock arrival time prediction. The match between predicted and observed shock arrival times (SATs) was considerably improved by iteratively adjusting the initial shock speed. We obtained the adjustment factors as a function of the initial shock speed for different hemispheres by statistical analysis and applied them to adjust the initial shock speed driven by the solar flares which occurred in the following five Carrington rotations (1986 similar to 1990), the mean absolute error of the shock arrival time was reduced from 16 (15) hours to 12 (11) hours for the flare occurred on the western (eastern) hemisphere. This indicates that there can be significant improvements for the shock arrival time prediction by adjusting the initial shock speed using the statistical functions.
Indexed BySCI ; EI
Funding Project中国科学院空间科学与应用研究中心
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.nssc.ac.cn/handle/122/3200
Collection空间科学部
Corresponding AuthorLuo, H (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geol & Geophys, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China.
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Luo Hao,Chen Geng-Xiong,Du Ai-Min,et al. Influence of the initial shock speed excited by solar flares on shock arrival time prediction[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICS-CHINESE EDITION,2011,54(6):856-863.
APA Luo Hao.,Chen Geng-Xiong.,Du Ai-Min.,Sun Wei.,Xu Wen-Yao.,...&Luo, H .(2011).Influence of the initial shock speed excited by solar flares on shock arrival time prediction.CHINESE JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICS-CHINESE EDITION,54(6),856-863.
MLA Luo Hao,et al."Influence of the initial shock speed excited by solar flares on shock arrival time prediction".CHINESE JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICS-CHINESE EDITION 54.6(2011):856-863.
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