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Using soft X-ray observations to help the prediction of flare related interplanetary shocks arrival times at the Earth
Liu, H. -L.; Qin, G.; Liu, HL (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Space Weather, Ctr Space Sci & Appl Res, POB 8701, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China.
Department空间科学部
Source PublicationJOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SPACE PHYSICS
2012
Volume117Pages:A04108
ISSN0148-0227
Language英语
AbstractIt is very important to predict the shock arrival times (SATs) at Earth for space weather practice. In this paper we use the energy of soft X-ray during solar flare events to help predict the SATs at Earth. We combine the soft X-ray energy and SAT prediction models previously developed by researchers to obtain two new methods. By testing the methods with the total of 585 solar flare events following the generation of a metric type II radio burst during the Solar Cycle 23 from September 1997 to December 2006, we find that the predictions of SATs at Earth could be improved by significantly increasing PODn, the proportion of events without shock detection that were correctly forecast. PODn represents a method's ability in forecasting the solar flare events without shocks arriving at the Earth, which is important for operational predictions.; It is very important to predict the shock arrival times (SATs) at Earth for space weather practice. In this paper we use the energy of soft X-ray during solar flare events to help predict the SATs at Earth. We combine the soft X-ray energy and SAT prediction models previously developed by researchers to obtain two new methods. By testing the methods with the total of 585 solar flare events following the generation of a metric type II radio burst during the Solar Cycle 23 from September 1997 to December 2006, we find that the predictions of SATs at Earth could be improved by significantly increasing PODn, the proportion of events without shock detection that were correctly forecast. PODn represents a method's ability in forecasting the solar flare events without shocks arriving at the Earth, which is important for operational predictions.
Indexed BySCI
Funding Project中国科学院空间科学与应用研究中心
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.nssc.ac.cn/handle/122/3213
Collection空间科学部
Corresponding AuthorLiu, HL (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Space Weather, Ctr Space Sci & Appl Res, POB 8701, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China.
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Liu, H. -L.,Qin, G.,Liu, HL . Using soft X-ray observations to help the prediction of flare related interplanetary shocks arrival times at the Earth[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SPACE PHYSICS,2012,117:A04108.
APA Liu, H. -L.,Qin, G.,&Liu, HL .(2012).Using soft X-ray observations to help the prediction of flare related interplanetary shocks arrival times at the Earth.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SPACE PHYSICS,117,A04108.
MLA Liu, H. -L.,et al."Using soft X-ray observations to help the prediction of flare related interplanetary shocks arrival times at the Earth".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SPACE PHYSICS 117(2012):A04108.
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