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Ensemble downscaling in coupled solar wind-magnetosphere modeling for space weather forecasting
Owens, M. J.; Horbury, T. S.; Wicks, R. T.; McGregor, S. L.; Savani, N. P.; Xiong, M.; Owens, MJ (reprint author), Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Space Environm Phys Grp, Reading, Berks, England.
Department空间科学部
Source PublicationSPACE WEATHER-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS
2014
Volume12Issue:6Pages:395-405
ISSN1542-7390
Language英语
AbstractAdvanced forecasting of space weather requires simulation of the whole Sun-to-Earth system, which necessitates driving magnetospheric models with the outputs from solar wind models. This presents a fundamental difficulty, as the magnetosphere is sensitive to both large-scale solar wind structures, which can be captured by solar wind models, and small-scale solar wind "noise," which is far below typical solar wind model resolution and results primarily from stochastic processes. Following similar approaches in terrestrial climate modeling, we propose statistical "downscaling" of solar wind model results prior to their use as input to a magnetospheric model. As magnetospheric response can be highly nonlinear, this is preferable to downscaling the results of magnetospheric modeling. To demonstrate the benefit of this approach, we first approximate solar wind model output by smoothing solar wind observations with an 8 h filter, then add small-scale structure back in through the addition of random noise with the observed spectral characteristics. Here we use a very simple parameterization of noise based upon the observed probability distribution functions of solar wind parameters, but more sophisticated methods will be developed in the future. An ensemble of results from the simple downscaling scheme are tested using a model-independent method and shown to add value to the magnetospheric forecast, both improving the best estimate and quantifying the uncertainty. We suggest a number of features desirable in an operational solar wind downscaling scheme.
Indexed BySCI
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.nssc.ac.cn/handle/122/4465
Collection空间科学部
Corresponding AuthorOwens, MJ (reprint author), Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Space Environm Phys Grp, Reading, Berks, England.
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Owens, M. J.,Horbury, T. S.,Wicks, R. T.,et al. Ensemble downscaling in coupled solar wind-magnetosphere modeling for space weather forecasting[J]. SPACE WEATHER-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS,2014,12(6):395-405.
APA Owens, M. J..,Horbury, T. S..,Wicks, R. T..,McGregor, S. L..,Savani, N. P..,...&Owens, MJ .(2014).Ensemble downscaling in coupled solar wind-magnetosphere modeling for space weather forecasting.SPACE WEATHER-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS,12(6),395-405.
MLA Owens, M. J.,et al."Ensemble downscaling in coupled solar wind-magnetosphere modeling for space weather forecasting".SPACE WEATHER-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS 12.6(2014):395-405.
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