NSSC OpenIR  > 空间科学部
Alternative TitlePredicting whether an Interplanetary Shock Will Encounter the Earth by Using Solar and Interplanetary Parameters
解妍琼; 张莹; 杜丹
Source Publication空间科学学报
Keyword太阳瞬变爆发活动 行星际激波 太阳高能粒子 空间天气预报
Other AbstractPredicting whether an Interplanetary (IP) shock driven by solar eruptions will encounter the Earth is the prerequisite and foundation to predict its arrival time at the Earth and the geoeffectiveness. Using 542 IP shock events associated with solar eruptions during 1997-2006, the influence of intensity, location, initial shock speed, duration of solar eruptions and Solar Energetic Particles (SEP) flux upon the propagation of IP shocks is investigated statistically, and then key physical parameters mentioned above that obviously influence the IP shock's arrival at the Earth are chosen. Finally, an Earth-directed and Earth-away Shock Prediction Model (EdEaSPM) based on not only solar parameters but also SEP parameters is built. The results of historical prediction show that the success rate of EdEaSPM model is about 66%, which is significantly higher than that of the other prevailing models, STOA, ISPM and HAFv2. The False Alarm Ratio (FAR) of EdEaSPM is less than 50% and the situation that FAR is too high is improved. For the ratio of number of events with shock forecast to that with shock detection, bias, although the value of Bias of all of the models is greater than 1,the Bias of EdEaSPM is the smallest and most close to 1. For the other forecast skill scores, TSS, HSS and GSS, the EdEaSPM performs better than HAFv2 model. In addition, prediction test of 6 IP shock events between Jan. and Oct. 2012 shows that the forecast results are consistent with observations. The EdEaSPM model can forecast whether an IP shock will encounter the Earth about 1 to 3 days in advance, and its accuracy is comparable to that of the other prevailing models. In particular, the success rate and false alarm ratio are improved significantly.
Indexed ByCSCD
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
解妍琼,张莹,杜丹. 联合太阳和行星际物理参数预测行星际激波能否到达地球[J]. 空间科学学报,2014,34(1):11-23.
APA 解妍琼,张莹,&杜丹.(2014).联合太阳和行星际物理参数预测行星际激波能否到达地球.空间科学学报,34(1),11-23.
MLA 解妍琼,et al."联合太阳和行星际物理参数预测行星际激波能否到达地球".空间科学学报 34.1(2014):11-23.
Files in This Item:
File Name/Size DocType Version Access License
201434111.pdf(853KB) 开放获取CC BY-NC-SAApplication Full Text
Related Services
Recommend this item
Usage statistics
Export to Endnote
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[解妍琼]'s Articles
[张莹]'s Articles
[杜丹]'s Articles
Baidu academic
Similar articles in Baidu academic
[解妍琼]'s Articles
[张莹]'s Articles
[杜丹]'s Articles
Bing Scholar
Similar articles in Bing Scholar
[解妍琼]'s Articles
[张莹]'s Articles
[杜丹]'s Articles
Terms of Use
No data!
Social Bookmark/Share
All comments (0)
No comment.

Items in the repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.