| 太阳活动与地球表面温度变化的周期性和相关性 | |
| Alternative Title | Periodicities of solar activity and the surface temperature variation of the Earth and their correlations |
| 赵新华; 冯学尚 | |
| Department | 空间科学部 |
| Source Publication | 科学通报
 |
| 2014 | |
| Volume | 59Issue:14Pages:1284-1292 |
| ISSN | 0023-074X |
| Language | 中文 |
| Keyword | 太阳活动 全球变化 小波分析 周期性 相关性 |
| Abstract | 基于太阳黑子历史数据、太阳总辐照(TSI)重构数据和实测地球表面平均温度数据(全球、陆地、海洋), 利用小波分析和交叉相关分析等方法, 考察了太阳活动和地表温度变化在数百年时间尺度上的周期性及相关性. 主要结果有: (1)在所考察的时间范围内, 太阳活动(包括黑子和太阳总辐照)存在4个置信度高于95%(白噪声)的主周期变化, 分别为11 a 周期、50 a 周期、世纪周期和双世纪周期, 全球温度存在64.3 a 的主周期变化, 接近太阳活动的50 a 周期; (2)太阳活动与全球温度变化具有22, 50 a 的显著共振周期; (3)太阳活动与地表温度长期变化的相关性高于其短期变化的相关性, 以黑子为例, 它与地表温度年均值的相关系数为0.31~0.35, 11 a 滑动平均值相关系数为0.58~0.70, 22 a 滑动平均值相关系数为0.64~0.78, 太阳总辐照与地表温度的相关性高于黑子与地表温度的相关性; (4)太阳活动在近100年里有明显增强, 它与全球温度(包括陆地、海洋)近100年的升温是一致的, 太阳活动与海洋温度的相关性略高于太阳活动与陆地温度的相关性.这些结果表明, 太阳活动在百年时间尺度上对于地表温度的变化具有不可忽略的影响. |
| Other Abstract | Based on the well-calibrated systematic measurements of sunspot numbers, the reconstructed data of the total solar irradiance (TSI), and the observed anomalies of the Earths averaged surface temperature (global, ocean, land), this paper investigates the periodicities of both solar activity and the Earths temperature variation as well as their correlations on the time scale of centuries using the wavelet and cross correlation analysis techniques. The main results are as follows. (1) Solar activities (including sunspot number and TSI) have four major periodic components higher than the 95% significance level of white noise during the period of interest, i.e. 11-year period, 50-year period, 100-year period, and 200-year period. The global temperature anomalies of the Earth have only one major periodic component of 64.3-year period, which is close to the 50-year cycle of solar activity. (2) Significant resonant periodicities between solar activity and the Earths temperature are focused on the 22- and 50-year period. (3) Correlations between solar activity and the surface temperature of the Earth on the long time scales are higher than those on the short time scales. As far as the sunspot number is concerned, its correlation coefficients to the Earth temperature are 0.31-0.35 on the yearly scale, 0.58-0.70 on the 11-year running mean scale, and 0.64-0.78 on the 22-year running mean scale. TSI has stronger correlations to the Earth temperature than sunspot number. (4) During the past 100 years, solar activities display a clear increasing tendency that corresponds to the global warming of the Earth (including land and ocean) very well. Particularly, the ocean temperature has a slightly higher correlation to solar activity than the land temperature. All these demonstrate that solar activity has a non-negligible forcing on the temperature change of the Earth on the time scale of centuries. |
| Indexed By | CSCD |
| Citation statistics |
Cited Times:8[CSCD]
[CSCD Record]
|
| Document Type | 期刊论文 |
| Identifier | http://ir.nssc.ac.cn/handle/122/4513 |
| Collection | 空间科学部 |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | 赵新华,冯学尚. 太阳活动与地球表面温度变化的周期性和相关性[J]. 科学通报,2014,59(14):1284-1292. |
| APA | 赵新华,&冯学尚.(2014).太阳活动与地球表面温度变化的周期性和相关性.科学通报,59(14),1284-1292. |
| MLA | 赵新华,et al."太阳活动与地球表面温度变化的周期性和相关性".科学通报 59.14(2014):1284-1292. |
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