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Improvements of the shock arrival times at the Earth model STOA
Liu, H. -L.; Qin, G.; Qin, G (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Natl Space Sci Ctr, State Key Lab Space Weather, Beijing, Peoples R China.
Department空间科学部
Source PublicationJOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SPACE PHYSICS
2015
Volume120Issue:7Pages:5290-5297
ISSN2169-9380
Language英语
KeywordInterplanetary Shock Arrival Times Prediction Model Solar Flare
AbstractPrediction of the shocks' arrival times (SATs) at the Earth is very important for space weather forecast. There is a well-known SAT model, Shock Time of Arrival (STOA), which is widely used in the space weather forecast. However, the shock transit time from STOA model usually has a relative large error compared to the real measurements. In addition, STOA tends to yield too much yes prediction, which causes a large number of false alarms. Therefore, in this work, we work on the modification of STOA model. First, we give a new method to calculate the shock transit time by modifying the way to use the solar wind speed in STOA model. Second, we develop new criteria for deciding whether the shock will arrive at the Earth with the help of the sunspot numbers and the angle distances of the flare events. It is shown that our work can improve the SATs prediction significantly, especially the prediction of flare events without shocks arriving at the Earth.
Indexed BySCI
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.nssc.ac.cn/handle/122/4589
Collection空间科学部
Corresponding AuthorQin, G (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Natl Space Sci Ctr, State Key Lab Space Weather, Beijing, Peoples R China.
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Liu, H. -L.,Qin, G.,Qin, G . Improvements of the shock arrival times at the Earth model STOA[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SPACE PHYSICS,2015,120(7):5290-5297.
APA Liu, H. -L.,Qin, G.,&Qin, G .(2015).Improvements of the shock arrival times at the Earth model STOA.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SPACE PHYSICS,120(7),5290-5297.
MLA Liu, H. -L.,et al."Improvements of the shock arrival times at the Earth model STOA".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SPACE PHYSICS 120.7(2015):5290-5297.
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