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Alternative TitleSolar flare forecasting model with active region photospheric magnetic field properties and sunspot factors
李蓉; 朱杰; 崔延美; lirong@bao.ac.cn
Source Publication科学通报
Keyword太阳耀斑 预报因子 黑子数据 太阳光球磁场 多层感知器
Other AbstractSolar active region photospheric magnetic physical properties and sunspots factors are connected to research on solar flare short term forecasting. The significance of integrated parameters is discussed. Sunspots parameters are area, magnetic classification, Macintosh classification; and the magnetic physical properties are parameterized with the maximum horizontal gradient, the length of neutral line with the strong gradients, the number of singular points. Using flare productivity fitting function, the initial data set of predictors is normalized to form the modeling data set. Based on this data set, multi-layer perceptron is applied to building flare forecasting model. In experiment, the integrated forecasting model is compared with other two models which take sunspots and magnetic parameters separately. The results indicate that the integrated model has a higher accuracy rate and a lower false alarm rate.
Indexed ByCSCD
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Document Type期刊论文
Corresponding Authorlirong@bao.ac.cn
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
李蓉,朱杰,崔延美,等. 结合活动区光球磁场参量和黑子参量的太阳耀斑预报模型[J]. 科学通报,2013,58(19):1845-1850.
APA 李蓉,朱杰,崔延美,&lirong@bao.ac.cn.(2013).结合活动区光球磁场参量和黑子参量的太阳耀斑预报模型.科学通报,58(19),1845-1850.
MLA 李蓉,et al."结合活动区光球磁场参量和黑子参量的太阳耀斑预报模型".科学通报 58.19(2013):1845-1850.
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