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INFLUENCE OF A CME'S INITIAL PARAMETERS ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE ASSOCIATED INTERPLANETARY SHOCK AT EARTH AND THE SHOCK PROPAGATIONAL MODEL VERSION 3
Zhao, X. H.; Feng, X. S.; Zhao, XH (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Natl Space Sci Ctr, State Key Lab Space Weather, SIGMA Weather Grp, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China.
Department空间科学部
Source PublicationASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL
2015
Volume809Issue:1Pages:44
ISSN0004-637X
Language英语
KeywordShock Waves Solar-terrestrial Relations Sun: Coronal Mass Ejections (Cmes) Sun: Flares
AbstractPredicting the arrival times of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their related waves at Earth is an important aspect of space weather forecasting. The Shock Propagation Model (SPM) and its updated version (SPM2), which use the initial parameters of solar flare-Type II burst events as input, have been developed to predict the shock arrival time. This paper continues to investigate the influence of solar disturbances and their associated CMEs on the corresponding interplanetary (IP) shock's arrival at Earth. It has been found that IP shocks associated with wider CMEs have a greater probability of reaching the Earth, and the CME speed obtained from coronagraph observations can be supplementary to the initial shock speed computed from Type II radio bursts when predicting the shock's arrival time. Therefore, the third version of the model, i.e., SPM3, has been developed based on these findings. The new version combines the characteristics of solar flare-Type II events with the initial parameters of the accompanying CMEs to provide the prediction of the associated IP shock's arrival at Earth. The prediction test for 498 events of Solar Cycle 23 reveals that the prediction success rate of SPM3 is 70%-71%, which is apparently higher than that of the previous SPM2 model (61%-63%). The transit time prediction error of SPM3 for the Earth-encountered shocks is within 9 hr (mean-absolute). Comparisons between SPM3 and other similar models also demonstrate that SPM3 has the highest success rate and best prediction performance.
Indexed BySCI
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.nssc.ac.cn/handle/122/5088
Collection空间科学部
Corresponding AuthorZhao, XH (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Natl Space Sci Ctr, State Key Lab Space Weather, SIGMA Weather Grp, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China.
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zhao, X. H.,Feng, X. S.,Zhao, XH . INFLUENCE OF A CME'S INITIAL PARAMETERS ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE ASSOCIATED INTERPLANETARY SHOCK AT EARTH AND THE SHOCK PROPAGATIONAL MODEL VERSION 3[J]. ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL,2015,809(1):44.
APA Zhao, X. H.,Feng, X. S.,&Zhao, XH .(2015).INFLUENCE OF A CME'S INITIAL PARAMETERS ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE ASSOCIATED INTERPLANETARY SHOCK AT EARTH AND THE SHOCK PROPAGATIONAL MODEL VERSION 3.ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL,809(1),44.
MLA Zhao, X. H.,et al."INFLUENCE OF A CME'S INITIAL PARAMETERS ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE ASSOCIATED INTERPLANETARY SHOCK AT EARTH AND THE SHOCK PROPAGATIONAL MODEL VERSION 3".ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL 809.1(2015):44.
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