NSSC OpenIR  > 空间环境部
第25太阳周太阳黑子数峰值预测
Alternative TitleThe prediction of maximum amplitude of solar cycle 25
苗娟; 龚建村; 李志涛; 任廷领
Department空间环境部
Source Publication中国科学. 物理学, 力学, 天文学
2015
Volume45Issue:9Pages:99601
ISSN1674-7275
Language中文
Keyword太阳周 峰值 上升期 下降期
Abstract本文通过对历史太阳周的峰值、上升期、下降期等特征参数的统计分析,给出了峰值变化与上升期之间的三类线性拟合关系,两个太阳周峰值之间长度与下降期的两类拟合关系,并通过分析太阳周的长期变化周期和第10周之后的偶、奇数峰值的变化规律,给出第25太阳周的预测结果:预计第25太阳周在2020年6月前后开始,该周会比第24太阳周强,太阳黑子数峰值为119.25.5,峰值强度类似于第17太阳周和23太阳周.
Other AbstractIn this paper, the correlation between various parameters of solar cycles 0-23 is investigated. The parameters include maximum, rising time and descending time. Three derived regression equations are given between maximum and rising time. Two derived regression equations are given between descending time and total of descending time and next rising time. Additionally, according to the cycle periodicity of secular trend and the regularity of maximum between even cycles and following odd cycles, the prediction of cycle 25 is obtained. It is expected that solar cycle 25 will begin in June 2020 and will be relatively stronger than cycle 24. The sunspot number maximum of cycle 25 is predicted to occur in April 2024 with a sunspot number of 119.25.5, which will be nearly the same strength of cycle 17 and 23.
Indexed ByCSCD
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.nssc.ac.cn/handle/122/5260
Collection空间环境部
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
苗娟,龚建村,李志涛,等. 第25太阳周太阳黑子数峰值预测[J]. 中国科学. 物理学, 力学, 天文学,2015,45(9):99601.
APA 苗娟,龚建村,李志涛,&任廷领.(2015).第25太阳周太阳黑子数峰值预测.中国科学. 物理学, 力学, 天文学,45(9),99601.
MLA 苗娟,et al."第25太阳周太阳黑子数峰值预测".中国科学. 物理学, 力学, 天文学 45.9(2015):99601.
Files in This Item: Download All
File Name/Size DocType Version Access License
201545999601.pdf(1274KB)期刊论文作者接受稿开放获取CC BY-NC-SAView Download
Related Services
Recommend this item
Bookmark
Usage statistics
Export to Endnote
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[苗娟]'s Articles
[龚建村]'s Articles
[李志涛]'s Articles
Baidu academic
Similar articles in Baidu academic
[苗娟]'s Articles
[龚建村]'s Articles
[李志涛]'s Articles
Bing Scholar
Similar articles in Bing Scholar
[苗娟]'s Articles
[龚建村]'s Articles
[李志涛]'s Articles
Terms of Use
No data!
Social Bookmark/Share
File name: 201545999601.pdf
Format: Adobe PDF
All comments (0)
No comment.
 

Items in the repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.