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Statistical analysis and verification of 3-hourly geomagnetic activity probability predictions
Wang, Jingjing; Zhong, Qiuzhen; Liu, Siqing; Miao, Juan; Liu, Fanghua; Li, Zhitao; Tang, Weiwei; Wang, JJ (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Natl Space Sci Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China.
Department空间环境部
Source PublicationSPACE WEATHER-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS
2015
Volume13Issue:12Pages:831-852
ISSN1542-7390
Language英语
AbstractThe Space Environment Prediction Center (SEPC) has classified geomagnetic activity into four levels: quiet to unsettled (Kp< 4), active (Kp= 4), minor to moderate storm (Kp = 5 or 6), and major to severe storm (Kp>6). The 3-hourly Kp index prediction product provided by the SEPC is updated half hourly. In this study, the statistical conditional forecast models for the 3-hourly geomagnetic activity level were developed based on 10 years of data and applied to more than 3 years of data, using the previous Kp index, interplanetary magnetic field, and solar wind parameters measured by the Advanced Composition Explorer as conditional parameters. The quality of the forecast models was measured and compared against verifications of accuracy, reliability, discrimination capability, and skill of predicting all geomagnetic activity levels, especially the probability of reaching the storm level given a previous "calm" (nonstorm level) or "storm" (storm level) condition. It was found that the conditional models that used the previous Kp index, the peak value of BtV (the product of the total interplanetarymagnetic field and speed), the average value of Bz (the southerly component of the interplanetary magnetic field), and BzV (the product of the southerly component of the interplanetary magnetic field and speed) over the last 6 h as conditional parameters provide a relative operating characteristic area of 0.64 and can be an appropriate predictor for the probability forecast of geomagnetic activity level.
Indexed BySCI
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.nssc.ac.cn/handle/122/5348
Collection空间环境部
Corresponding AuthorWang, JJ (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Natl Space Sci Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China.
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Wang, Jingjing,Zhong, Qiuzhen,Liu, Siqing,et al. Statistical analysis and verification of 3-hourly geomagnetic activity probability predictions[J]. SPACE WEATHER-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS,2015,13(12):831-852.
APA Wang, Jingjing.,Zhong, Qiuzhen.,Liu, Siqing.,Miao, Juan.,Liu, Fanghua.,...&Wang, JJ .(2015).Statistical analysis and verification of 3-hourly geomagnetic activity probability predictions.SPACE WEATHER-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS,13(12),831-852.
MLA Wang, Jingjing,et al."Statistical analysis and verification of 3-hourly geomagnetic activity probability predictions".SPACE WEATHER-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS 13.12(2015):831-852.
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