| Quantifying the contribution of natural variability to September Arctic sea ice decline | |
| Song Mirong; Wei Lixin; Wang Zhenzhan; Song, MR (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geop, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China. | |
| Department | 微波遥感部 |
| Source Publication | ACTA OCEANOLOGICA SINICA
 |
| 2016 | |
| Volume | 35Issue:5Pages:49-53 |
| ISSN | 0253-505X |
| Language | 英语 |
| Keyword | Internal Variability Sea Ice Decline External Forcing |
| Abstract | Arctic sea ice extent has been declining in recent decades. There is ongoing debate on the contribution of natural internal variability to recent and future Arctic sea ice changes. In this study, we contrast the trends in the forced and unforced simulations of carefully selected global climate models with the extended observed Arctic sea ice records. The results suggest that the natural variability explains no more than 42.3% of the observed September sea ice extent trend during 35 a (1979-2013) satellite observations, which is comparable to the results of the observed sea ice record extended back to 1953 (61 a, less than 48.5% natural variability). This reinforces the evidence that anthropogenic forcing plays a substantial role in the observed decline of September Arctic sea ice in recent decades. The magnitude of both positive and negative trends induced by the natural variability in the unforced simulations is slightly enlarged in the context of increasing greenhouse gases in the 21st century. However, the ratio between the realizations of positive and negative trends change has remained steady, which enforces the standpoint that external forcing will remain the principal determiner of the decreasing Arctic sea ice extent trend in the future. |
| Indexed By | SCI |
| Document Type | 期刊论文 |
| Identifier | http://ir.nssc.ac.cn/handle/122/5445 |
| Collection | 微波遥感部 |
| Corresponding Author | Song, MR (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geop, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China. |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Song Mirong,Wei Lixin,Wang Zhenzhan,et al. Quantifying the contribution of natural variability to September Arctic sea ice decline[J]. ACTA OCEANOLOGICA SINICA,2016,35(5):49-53. |
| APA | Song Mirong,Wei Lixin,Wang Zhenzhan,&Song, MR .(2016).Quantifying the contribution of natural variability to September Arctic sea ice decline.ACTA OCEANOLOGICA SINICA,35(5),49-53. |
| MLA | Song Mirong,et al."Quantifying the contribution of natural variability to September Arctic sea ice decline".ACTA OCEANOLOGICA SINICA 35.5(2016):49-53. |
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| 201635549-53.pdf（881KB） | 期刊论文 | 作者接受稿 | 开放获取 | CC BY-NC-SA | View Download | |
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