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Quantifying the contribution of natural variability to September Arctic sea ice decline
Song Mirong; Wei Lixin; Wang Zhenzhan; Song, MR (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geop, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China.
Department微波遥感部
Source PublicationACTA OCEANOLOGICA SINICA
2016
Volume35Issue:5Pages:49-53
ISSN0253-505X
Language英语
KeywordInternal Variability Sea Ice Decline External Forcing
AbstractArctic sea ice extent has been declining in recent decades. There is ongoing debate on the contribution of natural internal variability to recent and future Arctic sea ice changes. In this study, we contrast the trends in the forced and unforced simulations of carefully selected global climate models with the extended observed Arctic sea ice records. The results suggest that the natural variability explains no more than 42.3% of the observed September sea ice extent trend during 35 a (1979-2013) satellite observations, which is comparable to the results of the observed sea ice record extended back to 1953 (61 a, less than 48.5% natural variability). This reinforces the evidence that anthropogenic forcing plays a substantial role in the observed decline of September Arctic sea ice in recent decades. The magnitude of both positive and negative trends induced by the natural variability in the unforced simulations is slightly enlarged in the context of increasing greenhouse gases in the 21st century. However, the ratio between the realizations of positive and negative trends change has remained steady, which enforces the standpoint that external forcing will remain the principal determiner of the decreasing Arctic sea ice extent trend in the future.
Indexed BySCI
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.nssc.ac.cn/handle/122/5445
Collection微波遥感部
Corresponding AuthorSong, MR (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geop, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China.
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Song Mirong,Wei Lixin,Wang Zhenzhan,et al. Quantifying the contribution of natural variability to September Arctic sea ice decline[J]. ACTA OCEANOLOGICA SINICA,2016,35(5):49-53.
APA Song Mirong,Wei Lixin,Wang Zhenzhan,&Song, MR .(2016).Quantifying the contribution of natural variability to September Arctic sea ice decline.ACTA OCEANOLOGICA SINICA,35(5),49-53.
MLA Song Mirong,et al."Quantifying the contribution of natural variability to September Arctic sea ice decline".ACTA OCEANOLOGICA SINICA 35.5(2016):49-53.
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