NSSC OpenIR  > 空间环境部
Verification of SPE probability forecasts at the Space Environment Prediction Center (SEPC)
Cui YanMei; Liu SiQing; ErCha, A.; Zhong QiuZhen; Luo BingXian; Ao XianZhi; Cui, YM (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Natl Space Sci Ctr, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China.
Department空间环境部
Source PublicationSCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES
2016
Volume59Issue:6Pages:1292-1298
ISSN1674-7313
Language英语
KeywordForecast Verification Spe Forecast Spe Onset Days Space Weather Forecasting
AbstractIn space weather forecasting, forecast verification is necessary so that the forecast quality can be assessed. This paper provides an example of how to choose and devise verification methods and techniques according to different space weather forecast products. Solar proton events (SPEs) are hazardous space weather events, and forecasting them is one of the major tasks of the Space Environment Prediction Center (SEPC) at the National Space Science Center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Through analyzing SPE occurrence characteristics, SPE forecast properties, and verification requirements at SEPC, verification methods for SPE probability forecasts are identified, and verification results obtained. Overall, SPE probability forecasts at SEPC exhibit good accuracy, reliability, and discrimination. Compared with climatology and persistence forecasts, the SPE forecasts are more accurate. However, the forecasts for SPE onset days are substantially underestimated and need to be considerably improved.
Indexed BySCI ; EI
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.nssc.ac.cn/handle/122/5447
Collection空间环境部
Corresponding AuthorCui, YM (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Natl Space Sci Ctr, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China.
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Cui YanMei,Liu SiQing,ErCha, A.,et al. Verification of SPE probability forecasts at the Space Environment Prediction Center (SEPC)[J]. SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES,2016,59(6):1292-1298.
APA Cui YanMei.,Liu SiQing.,ErCha, A..,Zhong QiuZhen.,Luo BingXian.,...&Cui, YM .(2016).Verification of SPE probability forecasts at the Space Environment Prediction Center (SEPC).SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES,59(6),1292-1298.
MLA Cui YanMei,et al."Verification of SPE probability forecasts at the Space Environment Prediction Center (SEPC)".SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES 59.6(2016):1292-1298.
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