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题名: The Significance of the Influence of the CME Deflection in Interplanetary Space on the CME Arrival at Earth
作者: Zhuang, Bin; Wang, Yuming; Shen, Chenglong; Liu, Siqing; Wang, Jingjing; Pan, Zonghao; Li, Huimin; Liu, Rui
作者部门: 空间环境部
通讯作者: Wang, YM (reprint author), Univ Sci & Technol China, Dept Geophys & Planetary Sci, CAS Key Lab Geospace Environm, Hefei 230026, Anhui, Peoples R China. ; Wang, YM (reprint author), Univ Sci & Technol China, Synerget Innovat Ctr Quantum Informat & Quantum P, Hefei 230026, Anhui, Peoples R China.
关键词: Sun: coronal mass ejections (CMEs)
刊名: ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL
ISSN号: 0004-637X
出版日期: 2017
卷号: 845, 期号:2
收录类别: SCI
项目资助者: NSFC [41574165, 41421063, 41274173, 41474151] ; fundamental research funds for the central universities
英文摘要: As one of the most violent astrophysical phenomena, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have strong potential space weather effects. However, not all Earth-directed CMEs encounter the Earth and produce geo-effects. One reason is the deflected propagation of CMEs in interplanetary space. Although there have been several case studies clearly showing such deflections, it has not yet been statistically assessed how significantly the deflected propagation would influence the CME's arrival at Earth. We develop an integrated CME-arrival forecasting (iCAF) system, assembling the modules of CME detection, three-dimensional (3D) parameter derivation, and trajectory reconstruction to predict whether or not a CME arrives at Earth, and we assess the deflection influence on the CME-arrival forecasting. The performance of iCAF is tested by comparing the two-dimensional (2D) parameters with those in the Coordinated Data Analysis Workshop (CDAW) Data Center catalog, comparing the 3D parameters with those of the gradual cylindrical shell model, and estimating the success rate of the CME Eartharrival predictions. It is found that the 2D parameters provided by iCAF and the CDAW catalog are consistent with each other, and the 3D parameters derived by the ice cream cone model based on single-view observations are acceptable. The success rate of the CME-arrival predictions by iCAF with deflection considered is about 82%, which is 19% higher than that without deflection, indicating the importance of the CME deflection for providing a reliable forecasting. Furthermore, iCAF is a worthwhile project since it is a completely automatic system with deflection taken into account.
语种: 英语
内容类型: 期刊论文
URI标识: http://ir.nssc.ac.cn/handle/122/6034
Appears in Collections:空间环境部_期刊论文

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