NSSC OpenIR  > 空间环境部
The Significance of the Influence of the CME Deflection in Interplanetary Space on the CME Arrival at Earth
Zhuang, Bin; Wang, Yuming; Shen, Chenglong; Liu, Siqing; Wang, Jingjing; Pan, Zonghao; Li, Huimin; Liu, Rui; Wang, YM (reprint author), Univ Sci & Technol China, Dept Geophys & Planetary Sci, CAS Key Lab Geospace Environm, Hefei 230026, Anhui, Peoples R China.; Wang, YM (reprint author), Univ Sci & Technol China, Synerget Innovat Ctr Quantum Informat & Quantum P, Hefei 230026, Anhui, Peoples R China.
Department空间环境部
Source PublicationASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL
2017
Volume845Issue:2
ISSN0004-637X
Language英语
KeywordSun: Coronal Mass Ejections (Cmes)
AbstractAs one of the most violent astrophysical phenomena, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have strong potential space weather effects. However, not all Earth-directed CMEs encounter the Earth and produce geo-effects. One reason is the deflected propagation of CMEs in interplanetary space. Although there have been several case studies clearly showing such deflections, it has not yet been statistically assessed how significantly the deflected propagation would influence the CME's arrival at Earth. We develop an integrated CME-arrival forecasting (iCAF) system, assembling the modules of CME detection, three-dimensional (3D) parameter derivation, and trajectory reconstruction to predict whether or not a CME arrives at Earth, and we assess the deflection influence on the CME-arrival forecasting. The performance of iCAF is tested by comparing the two-dimensional (2D) parameters with those in the Coordinated Data Analysis Workshop (CDAW) Data Center catalog, comparing the 3D parameters with those of the gradual cylindrical shell model, and estimating the success rate of the CME Eartharrival predictions. It is found that the 2D parameters provided by iCAF and the CDAW catalog are consistent with each other, and the 3D parameters derived by the ice cream cone model based on single-view observations are acceptable. The success rate of the CME-arrival predictions by iCAF with deflection considered is about 82%, which is 19% higher than that without deflection, indicating the importance of the CME deflection for providing a reliable forecasting. Furthermore, iCAF is a worthwhile project since it is a completely automatic system with deflection taken into account.
Indexed BySCI
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.nssc.ac.cn/handle/122/6034
Collection空间环境部
Corresponding AuthorWang, YM (reprint author), Univ Sci & Technol China, Dept Geophys & Planetary Sci, CAS Key Lab Geospace Environm, Hefei 230026, Anhui, Peoples R China.; Wang, YM (reprint author), Univ Sci & Technol China, Synerget Innovat Ctr Quantum Informat & Quantum P, Hefei 230026, Anhui, Peoples R China.
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zhuang, Bin,Wang, Yuming,Shen, Chenglong,et al. The Significance of the Influence of the CME Deflection in Interplanetary Space on the CME Arrival at Earth[J]. ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL,2017,845(2).
APA Zhuang, Bin.,Wang, Yuming.,Shen, Chenglong.,Liu, Siqing.,Wang, Jingjing.,...&Wang, YM .(2017).The Significance of the Influence of the CME Deflection in Interplanetary Space on the CME Arrival at Earth.ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL,845(2).
MLA Zhuang, Bin,et al."The Significance of the Influence of the CME Deflection in Interplanetary Space on the CME Arrival at Earth".ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL 845.2(2017).
Files in This Item:
File Name/Size DocType Version Access License
20178452aa7fc0.pdf(2169KB)期刊论文作者接受稿开放获取CC BY-NC-SAApplication Full Text
Related Services
Recommend this item
Bookmark
Usage statistics
Export to Endnote
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Zhuang, Bin]'s Articles
[Wang, Yuming]'s Articles
[Shen, Chenglong]'s Articles
Baidu academic
Similar articles in Baidu academic
[Zhuang, Bin]'s Articles
[Wang, Yuming]'s Articles
[Shen, Chenglong]'s Articles
Bing Scholar
Similar articles in Bing Scholar
[Zhuang, Bin]'s Articles
[Wang, Yuming]'s Articles
[Shen, Chenglong]'s Articles
Terms of Use
No data!
Social Bookmark/Share
All comments (0)
No comment.
 

Items in the repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.