A New Tool for CME Arrival Time Prediction using Machine Learning Algorithms: CAT-PUMA

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	A New Tool for CME Arrival Time Prediction using Machine Learning Algorithms: CAT-PUMA
	Liu, Jiajia; Ye, Yudong; Shen, Chenglong; Wang, Yuming; Erdelyi, Robert
作者部门	空间科学部
	2018
发表期刊	ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL
ISSN	0004-637X
卷号	855 期号:2 页码:109
摘要	Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are arguably the most violent eruptions in the solar system. CMEs can cause severe disturbances in interplanetary space and can even affect human activities in many aspects, causing damage to infrastructure and loss of revenue. Fast and accurate prediction of CME arrival time is vital to minimize the disruption that CMEs may cause when interacting with geospace. In this paper, we propose a new approach for partial-/full halo CME Arrival Time Prediction Using Machine learning Algorithms (CAT-PUMA). Via detailed analysis of the CME features and solar-wind parameters, we build a prediction engine taking advantage of 182 previously observed geo-effective partial-/full halo CMEs and using algorithms of the Support Vector Machine. We demonstrate that CAT-PUMA is accurate and fast. In particular, predictions made after applying CAT-PUMA to a test set unknown to the engine show a mean absolute prediction error of similar to 5.9 hr within the CME arrival time, with 54% of the predictions having absolute errors less than 5.9 hr. Comparisons with other models reveal that CAT-PUMA has a more accurate prediction for 77% of the events investigated that can be carried out very quickly, i.e., within minutes of providing the necessary input parameters of a CME. A practical guide containing the CAT-PUMA engine and the source code of two examples are available in the Appendix, allowing the community to perform their own applications for prediction using CAT-PUMA.
项目资助者	Science and Technology Facility Council (STFC), UK [ST/M000826/1] ; Royal Society (UK) ; NSFC [41574165, 41774178]
关键词	Solar-terrestrial Relations Sun: Coronal Mass Ejections (Cmes)
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.nssc.ac.cn/handle/122/6239
专题	空间科学部
通讯作者	Liu, Jiajia; Ye, Yudong; Shen, Chenglong; Wang, Yuming; Erdelyi, Robert
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liu, Jiajia,Ye, Yudong,Shen, Chenglong,et al. A New Tool for CME Arrival Time Prediction using Machine Learning Algorithms: CAT-PUMA[J]. ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL,2018,855(2):109.
APA	Liu, Jiajia,Ye, Yudong,Shen, Chenglong,Wang, Yuming,&Erdelyi, Robert.(2018).A New Tool for CME Arrival Time Prediction using Machine Learning Algorithms: CAT-PUMA.ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL,855(2),109.
MLA	Liu, Jiajia,et al."A New Tool for CME Arrival Time Prediction using Machine Learning Algorithms: CAT-PUMA".ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL 855.2(2018):109.

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20188552109.pdf（983KB）	期刊论文	作者接受稿	开放获取	CC BY-NC-SA	请求全文