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An operational solar wind prediction system transitioning fundamental science to operations
Wang, Jingjing; Ao, Xianzhi; Wang, Yuming; Wang, Chuanbing; Cai, Yanxia; Luo, Bingxian; Liu, Siqing; Shen, Chenglong; Zhuang, Bin; Xue, Xianghui; Gong, Jiancun; Wang, JJ (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Natl Space Sci Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China.
Department空间环境部
Source PublicationJOURNAL OF SPACE WEATHER AND SPACE CLIMATE
2018
Volume8Pages:A39
ISSN2115-7251
Language英语
KeywordForecasting Solar Wind Coronal Mass Ejection (Cme) Space Weather
AbstractWe present in this paper an operational solar wind prediction system. The system is an outcome of the collaborative efforts between scientists in research communities and forecasters at Space Environment Prediction Center (SEPC) in China. This system is mainly composed of three modules: (1) a photospheric magnetic field extrapolation module, along with the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) empirical method, to obtain the background solar wind speed and the magnetic field strength on the source surface; (2) a modified Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry (HAF) kinematic module for simulating the propagation of solar wind structures in the interplanetary space; and (3) a coronal mass ejection (CME) detection module, which derives CME parameters using the ice-cream cone model based on coronagraph images. By bridging the gap between fundamental science and operational requirements, our system is finally capable of predicting solar wind conditions near Earth, especially the arrival times of the co-rotating interaction regions (CIRs) and CMEs. Our test against historical solar wind data from 2007 to 2016 shows that the hit rate (HR) of the high-speed enhancements (HSEs) is 0.60 and the false alarm rate (FAR) is 0.30. The mean error (ME) and the mean absolute error (MAE) of the maximum speed for the same period are -73.9 km s(-1) and 101.2 km s(-1), respectively. Meanwhile, the ME and MAE of the arrival time of the maximum speed are 0.15 days and 1.27 days, respectively. There are 25 CMEs simulated and the MAE of the arrival time is 18.0 h.
Indexed BySCI
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.nssc.ac.cn/handle/122/6426
Collection空间环境部
Corresponding AuthorWang, JJ (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Natl Space Sci Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China.
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Wang, Jingjing,Ao, Xianzhi,Wang, Yuming,et al. An operational solar wind prediction system transitioning fundamental science to operations[J]. JOURNAL OF SPACE WEATHER AND SPACE CLIMATE,2018,8:A39.
APA Wang, Jingjing.,Ao, Xianzhi.,Wang, Yuming.,Wang, Chuanbing.,Cai, Yanxia.,...&Wang, JJ .(2018).An operational solar wind prediction system transitioning fundamental science to operations.JOURNAL OF SPACE WEATHER AND SPACE CLIMATE,8,A39.
MLA Wang, Jingjing,et al."An operational solar wind prediction system transitioning fundamental science to operations".JOURNAL OF SPACE WEATHER AND SPACE CLIMATE 8(2018):A39.
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