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Linear Multistep F10.7 Forecasting Based on Task Correlation and Heteroscedasticity
Wang, Zhen; Hu, Qinghua; Zhong, Qiuzhen; Wang, Yun
作者部门空间环境部
发表期刊EARTH AND SPACE SCIENCE
2018
卷号5期号:12页码:863-874
DOI10.1029/2018EA000393
ISSN2333-5084
语种英语
摘要Solar 10.7-cm radio flux (F10.7) is an important measure of solar radio emission activity. Accurate F10.7 forecasting plays a key role in both space weather and global environment forecasts. We discover that forecasting errors are heteroscedastic, something that is not often considered in previous models. In addition, task correlation between different forecasting steps is ignored in current multistep-ahead forecast models. In this work, we propose a linear multistep forecasting model based on the correlation between different forecasting steps and the characteristic of heteroscedasticity. Further, we introduce a variational Bayesian procedure to optimize the model. The performance of the proposed model is tested on F10.7 historical data. The results show that the proposed model improves the performance of multistep F10.7 forecasting by considering correlation and heteroscedasticity. Plain Language Summary The solar 10.7-cm radio flux (F10.7) is an important measure of solar radio emission activity. We introduce a model that considers the task correlation between different forecasting steps and heteroscedasticity, which are not considered before. The results on F10.7 historical data show that the proposed model has better performance.
收录类别SCI
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文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://ir.nssc.ac.cn/handle/122/6678
专题空间环境部
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Wang, Zhen,Hu, Qinghua,Zhong, Qiuzhen,et al. Linear Multistep F10.7 Forecasting Based on Task Correlation and Heteroscedasticity[J]. EARTH AND SPACE SCIENCE,2018,5(12):863-874.
APA Wang, Zhen,Hu, Qinghua,Zhong, Qiuzhen,&Wang, Yun.(2018).Linear Multistep F10.7 Forecasting Based on Task Correlation and Heteroscedasticity.EARTH AND SPACE SCIENCE,5(12),863-874.
MLA Wang, Zhen,et al."Linear Multistep F10.7 Forecasting Based on Task Correlation and Heteroscedasticity".EARTH AND SPACE SCIENCE 5.12(2018):863-874.
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