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Alternative TitleStatistical Model of the Relativistic Electron Fluence Forecast at Geostationary Orbit
钟秋珍; 未历航; 林瑞淋; 郑金磊; 刘四清
Source Publication空间科学学报
Keyword地球静止轨道 哨声波局地加速 地磁AE指数 太阳风速度 相对论电子预报
Other AbstractBased on the theory of local acceleration by chorus mode wave, AE index is selected as a good indicator for both source electron flux and flux anisotropy, and Dst index is selected as a good indicator for relativistic electron loss. By use of AE and Dst indices as input parameters, a prediction model for relativistic electrons at GEO orbit has been established on the basis of linear filter technology. The results are as follows. The total Prediction Efficiency (PE) of our model for the data from 2000 to 2009 is 0.818. The highest PE is about 0.856, which occurred in 2009. The lowest PE is about 0.663,which occurred in 2003. The prediction accuracy of the model is significantly better than that of the persistence model and is slightly less than the model developed by the same method but taking the solar wind as the input parameters. Furthermore, the model is improved by taking solar wind speed as an additional input parameter. The values of PE from 2000 to 2009 increase every year. The PE of 2005 is increased by 9.5%. The total prediction efficiency from 2000 to 2009 increased to 0.848. The linear correlation coefficient between forecasts and observations is 0.918, and the root mean square error is 0.422.
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Document Type期刊论文
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GB/T 7714
钟秋珍,未历航,林瑞淋,等. GEO轨道相对论电子日积分通量预报统计建模[J]. 空间科学学报,2019,39(1):18-27.
APA 钟秋珍,未历航,林瑞淋,郑金磊,&刘四清.(2019).GEO轨道相对论电子日积分通量预报统计建模.空间科学学报,39(1),18-27.
MLA 钟秋珍,et al."GEO轨道相对论电子日积分通量预报统计建模".空间科学学报 39.1(2019):18-27.
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