| The Mid-Term Forecast Method of F-10.7 Based on Extreme Ultraviolet Images | |
| Lei, L.; Zhong, Q.; Wang, J.; Shi, L.; Liu, S. | |
| Department | 空间环境部 |
| Source Publication | ADVANCES IN ASTRONOMY
 |
| 2019 | |
| Pages | 5604092 |
| DOI | 10.1155/2019/5604092 |
| ISSN | 1687-7969 |
| Language | 英语 |
| Abstract | The solar radio flux at 10.7cm (F-10.7) is a direct monitor and an important indicator of solar variability, and F-10.7 is commonly used in empirical atmospheric models, ionosphere models, etc. The source regions of F-10.7 are mainly in the corona above the active regions, and the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) images reflect the coronal thermal structure. In this paper, an index is defined as PSR based on the intensity values of solar EUV images to represent the coronal contribution to F-10.7. The Spearman correlation coefficient between the observed values of F-10.7 and PSR is 0.85 in 304 angstrom EUV images. Based on the high correlation, an empirical model is constructed. Combining the EUV data of SDO/AIA and the twin STEREO/EUVI, solar full-disk EUV images can be generated, and the future 27-day values of PSR can be calculated. Then, a realistic estimation of F-10.7 from 1 to 27 days in advance can be provided by the empirical model. Compared to the predictive values of F-10.7 by the 54th-order autoregressive models in 2012-2013, the error drop-rate of our model is 12.54%, and our method has significant advantages in the upcoming 3 to 27 days' forecast. |
| Indexed By | SCI |
| Citation statistics | |
| Document Type | 期刊论文 |
| Identifier | http://ir.nssc.ac.cn/handle/122/7041 |
| Collection | 空间环境部 |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Lei, L.,Zhong, Q.,Wang, J.,et al. The Mid-Term Forecast Method of F-10.7 Based on Extreme Ultraviolet Images[J]. ADVANCES IN ASTRONOMY,2019:5604092. |
| APA | Lei, L.,Zhong, Q.,Wang, J.,Shi, L.,&Liu, S..(2019).The Mid-Term Forecast Method of F-10.7 Based on Extreme Ultraviolet Images.ADVANCES IN ASTRONOMY,5604092. |
| MLA | Lei, L.,et al."The Mid-Term Forecast Method of F-10.7 Based on Extreme Ultraviolet Images".ADVANCES IN ASTRONOMY (2019):5604092. |
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| 20195604092.pdf（5712KB） | 期刊论文 | 出版稿 | 开放获取 | CC BY-NC-SA | View Download | |
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