NSSC OpenIR  > 空间环境部
The Mid-Term Forecast Method of F-10.7 Based on Extreme Ultraviolet Images
Lei, L.; Zhong, Q.; Wang, J.; Shi, L.; Liu, S.
Department空间环境部
Source PublicationADVANCES IN ASTRONOMY
2019
Pages5604092
DOI10.1155/2019/5604092
ISSN1687-7969
Language英语
AbstractThe solar radio flux at 10.7cm (F-10.7) is a direct monitor and an important indicator of solar variability, and F-10.7 is commonly used in empirical atmospheric models, ionosphere models, etc. The source regions of F-10.7 are mainly in the corona above the active regions, and the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) images reflect the coronal thermal structure. In this paper, an index is defined as PSR based on the intensity values of solar EUV images to represent the coronal contribution to F-10.7. The Spearman correlation coefficient between the observed values of F-10.7 and PSR is 0.85 in 304 angstrom EUV images. Based on the high correlation, an empirical model is constructed. Combining the EUV data of SDO/AIA and the twin STEREO/EUVI, solar full-disk EUV images can be generated, and the future 27-day values of PSR can be calculated. Then, a realistic estimation of F-10.7 from 1 to 27 days in advance can be provided by the empirical model. Compared to the predictive values of F-10.7 by the 54th-order autoregressive models in 2012-2013, the error drop-rate of our model is 12.54%, and our method has significant advantages in the upcoming 3 to 27 days' forecast.
Indexed BySCI
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Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.nssc.ac.cn/handle/122/7041
Collection空间环境部
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Lei, L.,Zhong, Q.,Wang, J.,et al. The Mid-Term Forecast Method of F-10.7 Based on Extreme Ultraviolet Images[J]. ADVANCES IN ASTRONOMY,2019:5604092.
APA Lei, L.,Zhong, Q.,Wang, J.,Shi, L.,&Liu, S..(2019).The Mid-Term Forecast Method of F-10.7 Based on Extreme Ultraviolet Images.ADVANCES IN ASTRONOMY,5604092.
MLA Lei, L.,et al."The Mid-Term Forecast Method of F-10.7 Based on Extreme Ultraviolet Images".ADVANCES IN ASTRONOMY (2019):5604092.
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