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Prediction Model for Solar Energetic Proton Events: Analysis and Verification
Zhong, Qiuzhen; Wang, Jingjing; Meng, Xuejie; Liu, Siqing; Gong, Jiancun
Department空间环境部
Source PublicationSPACE WEATHER-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS
2019
Volume17Issue:5Pages:709-726
DOI10.1029/2018SW001915
ISSN1542-7390
Language英语
AbstractSolar energetic protons (SEPs) can cause radiation damage to satellites. The Space Environment Prediction Center of China defines the start of a SEP event as the time when three consecutive instances of the 5-min-averaged integral flux of >10 MeV protons equal or exceed the 10 proton flux unit threshold. In this study, we analyzed the 5-min-averaged soft X-ray flux and the differential and integral proton flux obtained by the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites for the period from January 1990 to September 2017 and developed SEP prediction models and their products. The statistical models take one or two data products and the given thresholds as the predictor and predict whether a SEP event will occur or not in the next 24 hr. The quality of the forecast models was measured by comparing the model results against certain verification metrics. Our model taking the products of 5-min-averaged integral flux of >10 MeV protons and long wavelength of soft X-ray flux as predictors can provide a probability of detection of 0.80 (152/190), a false alarm ratio of 0.26 (53/205), and an average warning time of 2.6 hr for the correctly predicted events. In addition, the model can provide a critical success index of 0.63, a Gilbert skill score of 0.62, and a Heidke skill score of 0.76.
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Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.nssc.ac.cn/handle/122/7052
Collection空间环境部
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zhong, Qiuzhen,Wang, Jingjing,Meng, Xuejie,et al. Prediction Model for Solar Energetic Proton Events: Analysis and Verification[J]. SPACE WEATHER-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS,2019,17(5):709-726.
APA Zhong, Qiuzhen,Wang, Jingjing,Meng, Xuejie,Liu, Siqing,&Gong, Jiancun.(2019).Prediction Model for Solar Energetic Proton Events: Analysis and Verification.SPACE WEATHER-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS,17(5),709-726.
MLA Zhong, Qiuzhen,et al."Prediction Model for Solar Energetic Proton Events: Analysis and Verification".SPACE WEATHER-THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS 17.5(2019):709-726.
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