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Prediction verification of solar cycles 18-24 and a preliminary prediction of the maximum amplitude of solar cycle 25 based on the Precursor Method
Alternative TitleWOS:000509307900001
Miao, Juan; Wang, Xin; Ren, Ting-Ling; Li, Zhi-Tao
Source PublicationRESEARCH IN ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS
2020
Volume20Issue:1Pages:4
DOI10.1088/1674-4527/20/1/4
ISSN1674-4527
Language英语
Keywordsolar cycle sunspot geomagnetic aa indices SUNSPOT NUMBER SIZE
AbstractPredictions of the strength of solar cycles are important and are necessary for planning long-term missions. A new solar cycle 25 is coming soon, and the amplitude is needed for space weather operators. Some predictions have been made using differentmethods and the values are drastically different. However, since 2015 July 1, the original sunspot number data have been entirely replaced by the Version 2.0 data series, and the sunspot number values have changed greatly. In this paper, using Version 2 smoothed sunspot numbers and aa indices, we verify the predictions for cycles 18-24 based on Ohl's PrecursorMethod. Then a similar-cycles method is used to evaluate the aa minimum of 9.7 (+/- 1.1) near the start of cycle 25 and based on the linear regression relationship between sunspot maxima and aa minima, our predicted Version 2 maximum sunspot number for cycle 25 is 121.5 (+/- 32.9).
Indexed BySCI
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Cited Times:5[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.nssc.ac.cn/handle/122/7602
Collection中国科学院国家空间科学中心
Affiliation1.[Miao, Juan
2.Wang, Xin
3.Ren, Ting-Ling
4.Chinese Acad Sci, Natl Space Sci Ctr, Beijing 0090, Peoples R China
5.[Wang, Xin
6.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Miao, Juan,Wang, Xin,Ren, Ting-Ling,et al. Prediction verification of solar cycles 18-24 and a preliminary prediction of the maximum amplitude of solar cycle 25 based on the Precursor Method[J]. RESEARCH IN ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS,2020,20(1):4.
APA Miao, Juan,Wang, Xin,Ren, Ting-Ling,&Li, Zhi-Tao.(2020).Prediction verification of solar cycles 18-24 and a preliminary prediction of the maximum amplitude of solar cycle 25 based on the Precursor Method.RESEARCH IN ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS,20(1),4.
MLA Miao, Juan,et al."Prediction verification of solar cycles 18-24 and a preliminary prediction of the maximum amplitude of solar cycle 25 based on the Precursor Method".RESEARCH IN ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS 20.1(2020):4.
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