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A practical database method for predicting arrivals of "average'' interplanetary shocks at Earth
Feng XS(冯学尚); Zhang,Y.; Sun, W.; Dryer, M.; Fry, C. D.; Deehr, C. S.; 北京8701信箱
Department空间天气学国家重点实验室
Source PublicationJournal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics
2009
Volume114Pages:A01101
ISSN0148-0227
Language英语
KeywordSolar-wind Disturbances Coronal Mass Ejections April 2001 Models Time Speed Simulation Evolution Expansion Stoa
AbstractA practical database method for predicting the interplanetary shock arrival time at L1 point is presented here. First, a shock transit time database (hereinafter called Database-I) based on HAFv.1 (version 1 of the Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry model) is preliminarily established with hypothetical solar events. Then, on the basis of the prediction test results of 130 observed solar events during the period from February 1997 to August 2002, Database-I is modified to create a practical database method, named Database-II, organized on a multidimensional grid of source location, initial coronal shock speed, and the year of occurrence of the hypothetical solar event. The arrival time at L1 for any given solar event occurring in the 23rd solar cycle can be predicted by looking up in the grid of Database-II according to source location, the initial coronal shock speed, and the year of occurrence in cycle 23. Within the hit window of +/- 12 h, the success rate of the Database-II method for 130 solar events is 44%. This could be practically equivalent to the shock time of arrival (STOA) model, the interplanetary shock propagation model (ISPM), and the HAFv.2 model. To explore the capability of this method, it is tested on new data sets. These tests give reasonable results. In particular, this method's performance for a set of events in other cycles is as good as that of the STOA and ISPM models. This gives us confidence in its application to other cycles. From the viewpoint of long-term periodicity for solar activity, it is expected that the Database-II method can be applicable to the next solar cycle 24.
Indexed BySCI
Funding Project中国科学院空间科学与应用研究中心
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.nssc.ac.cn/handle/122/974
Collection空间科学部
Corresponding Author北京8701信箱
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Feng XS,Zhang,Y.,Sun, W.,et al. A practical database method for predicting arrivals of "average'' interplanetary shocks at Earth[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics,2009,114:A01101.
APA 冯学尚.,Zhang,Y..,Sun, W..,Dryer, M..,Fry, C. D..,...&北京8701信箱.(2009).A practical database method for predicting arrivals of "average'' interplanetary shocks at Earth.Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics,114,A01101.
MLA 冯学尚,et al."A practical database method for predicting arrivals of "average'' interplanetary shocks at Earth".Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics 114(2009):A01101.
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